At the beginning of 2015 the overall outlook of this year Plate The market for full year market is still holding pessimistic attitude, from the first half of the market has run 2015 year trend, the market is still difficult to reverse the decline, production business pressure is more obvious, Trader Frustrated by the overall market decline, operating enthusiasm is low, the market trading atmosphere is significantly decreased in 2014. From the mode of operation, in 2015 due to the unilateral downward trend is very obvious, the actual operation of a single trader on the most obvious frustration, reliance on this model is significantly reduced; the distribution pattern is also facing the drawbacks of vicious price competition between the traders in the market continued to decline after the case; pricing model as signs of unilateral market weakness obviously. For mills of this model to boost short-term downside accelerate concerns, the overall promotion rate is only limited to some mainstream manufacturers. About to enter the end of the year, I hope that through the observation of this year to the overall market, the overall operating pressure in the market at the same time that summed up the direction of future development.
First, the overall price trend
The annual plate prices in 2015 fell unilateral trend in the existence of a few rebound operation opportunity, but the rebound time and strength is limited, more rebound reflects the "short, flat, fast, less for the opportunity. At the same time compared to 2014 the price trend, amplitude is more obvious, the price from 2014 year high of 3535 yuan / ton fell to 2015 year low of 1866 yuan / ton, down 47.2%, the cumulative decline of 1669 yuan / ton, largely killed off the overall market confidence.
Price changes in two varieties,
From the trend of several major varieties of black metal plate, 2014 year trend is still relatively strong, but in the 2015 year the current statistics of the situation, the plate varieties once again become relatively weak varieties. From the decline in the situation, the four main varieties which only slightly less than the decline of cold-rolled plate, down 1000 yuan / ton. In addition from the spread of the situation, and the other thread, hot rolling and cold rolling are spread further reduced, and the Screw thread steel The price from 160 yuan / ton to shrink nearly 4 yuan / ton, volume of hot-rolled plates and spread by 2014 of 19 yuan / ton higher than hot rolled into hot 2015 below 11 yuan / ton. Whether it is from the price changes, the decline between varieties can be very clear signs in 15 years to weaken the plate varieties is quite obvious.
In three, the overall market confidence index
The whole industry recession is the market long-term pessimism. From the spread between roughly above all year the price of operation and other mainstream varieties, varieties of annual plate weaker tone has been basically established. From the long-term monitoring of my iron and steel market traders confidence index, the majority of the time period are lower than the average level of 50, 50 higher than the total time average value of not more than 2 months.
Four, the capacity is still go15
From the production of plate varieties to analyze, to production process still has a long way to go". The current data statistics, as of the latest Bureau of statistics data, in 2015 the plate current output of 62 million 126 thousand tons, total yield statistics in November and December did not join with the total expected in 2014 are basically the same, under market circumstances, the follow-up to capacity is still difficult.
Five, market Stock Gradually decreased signs
From the domestic leading inventory statistics of city plate varieties, from 2013 to 2015 inventory levels showed a declining trend. Inventory data from the operation trend along with the market environment continues to weaken, the enthusiasm of traders stocking in plate varieties decreased year after year, the stock market also reduce side brings the intermediate circulation trading atmosphere weakness. But individually 2015 annual inventory operation situation, and a few years ago and there is a running inventory operation situation obvious features, from inventory fluctuations throughout the year, the 2015 annual domestic stocks are at a relatively stable level, signs of fluctuation of narrow space is outstanding, it also reflects some new the first feature: the operation of the market in the deterioration of the environment, traders operate more cautious. Second: the smaller the market volatility of the market, the overall operating time for traders is short, high risk stockpile.
Six, steel production did not play a larger discount
As the actual production yield of enterprises from the domestic point of view, although the 2015 year practical yield up to a weak balance phenomenon, but compared to the previous years data, plate production enterprise actual capacity utilization remained at a high level, a certain degree of domestic plate market although the overall market is still the poor, but the capacity to still face greater pressure. Considering the steel production can exist many other jobs, local tax and other aspects of the constraints, to the inventory is represent the general trend, but the short term is difficult to have significant improvement. For example according to Mysteel statistics, 2016 annual production capacity of enterprises by nearly 1 million tons, mainly in Jiangsu Shagang Plate production line group 3500mm in operation, under no bankruptcy or mergers and acquisitions in the rest of the case, while still facing plate supply domestic long-term pressure.
Seven, Exit Become a bright spot to ease the domestic pressure
2014 annual domestic steel exports surge. Customs data show that in 2014 1 to November, China's total exports of 83 million 610 thousand tons of steel, an increase of 46.79%, the highest record in history. The plate varieties rise spurt at the beginning of near freezing, until this year's data plate exports still maintained higher exports. But the surge in exports has also brought many Anti-dumping , under international pressure, many countries have also introduced the corresponding anti-dumping measures. But as since January 1, 2015 officially canceled boron steel Exit drawback , including some thread, wire rod, hot-rolled, plate, thick varieties will be more or less affected, exports continued to maintain a high level of the phenomenon may be difficult to continue.
In 2016, the market can be expected to change part of the
1, the first steel wolf"
The new production line is expected in 2016 temporarily included in the leading private enterprises, Shagang, expected 3500mm years production line officially put into operation in the downstream plate concentrated in East China will set off the new waves. Under the background of Shagang is put into operation in 2015 in Jiangsu area Nangang From simple export with specific varieties plate rolling mode began to tilt part of the capacity of changes to the market circulation. Second, the North Anshan There are also persistent protocol resources on the East and Southern China release, and the early part of the main shipbuilding industries such as steel prices Shougang And part of the operation behavior of Xiangtan Steel, Xinyu 2016 annual possible variables, the year 2016 is expected to market circulation increased steel line competition, continue to play the role of the corresponding second tier mills "All flowers bloom together." phenomenon.
2, increase the vitality of the market, reduce exit trader
随着单边下跌辅以较短波段反弹行情成为市场价格运行的常态，资金实力不足、库存消化能力有限的贸易商面临的困难会更加明显，另外部分以直供下游终端为主的贸易商在下游增量 demandLimited possibility under the slow development of the real economy and the background retreat are more prominent. From the main indicators of the market point of view, the total inventory will continue to remain low in the operation, the ability and enthusiasm of traders stocking have varying degrees of decline. Secondly mills brand concept will spread more desalination, in the intensified circulation on the market competition is expected to enter the corresponding part of the new area of steel affected by quickly open market traders, there will be obvious passive "to change the price of" market operation behavior.
3, the electricity supplier for the plate varieties of influence declined
As in previous years, the major electricity supplier platform into Goods in stock In addition to self links, business platform in financial strength and resources digestion rate are incomparable advantages, market circulation is the most obvious impact. But since the middle of 2015 with the major electricity supplier platform adjust the operating ideas, gradually began to shift from self obvious consignment sales ideas, trade circulation business platform to the impact and influence weakened, the market traders and business platform of the competition is much lower, especially for the circulation price transparency is expected to cause a certain impact.
As for so many years, has been held in the plate industry in all steel mills, traders and industry practitioners in the industry, although the temporary difficulties, but I hope there has been, as at the end of this year occurred over the years some difficult to rally as providing opportunities for operation within the industry practitioners, so be ready well, the opportunity still exists in 2016!